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With the Stanley Cup behind us (there’s always next year, Habs fans...) and summer finally here, our attention turns from the rink of our June PWM Perspectives to the fairways for our July edition. Golf season is in full swing, and as it happens, the game has quite a lot to say about the markets we’re navigating this summer.
In The Legend of Bagger Vance, the caddie offers a line that has always stuck with us: golf is “a game that can’t be won, only played.” We’d argue the same is true of investing. There’s no final whistle, no trophy you lift and then walk away from. Instead, it’s on to the next round, the next shot.
On the investing front, conditions this summer look awfully pleasant. Amid SpaceX IPO excitement, the S&P 500 has recorded more than 20 record highs in 2026. Tensions in the Middle East have cooled, and the AI capital-spending boom that has powered this market shows little sign of letting up. Blue skies, light breeze, ball sitting up on the tee.
However, every golfer knows the forecast can turn by the back nine. A few clouds are gathering on the horizon: inflation has proven stickier than hoped, the U.S. Fed is signalling “higher-for-longer”, growth forecasts have been trimmed, and the word “recession” is creeping back into the conversation.
So how should we play it? Here’s where golf gets interesting, and where it picks up a thread we started last month with hockey and investment thinker Michael Mauboussin.
Sources: PGA Tour; Golf Compendium and MyGolfSpy (season driving-distance and greens-in-regulation data, 1980–2026); Golf Monthly (2026 tour average drive ≈ 303 yds); approach-distance data via The Left Rough. Figures rounded; for illustration only and not investment advice. https://www.samford.edu/sports-analytics/fans/2019/The-Greatest-PGA-Tour-Season-of-All-Time
Mauboussin has a concept he calls the “paradox of skill.” It’s one we think about often. As everyone in a field gets better, through better training, better data, and better equipment, the gap between the top and the bottom narrows. When the players are all bunched together, luck has more room to decide who wins on any given day. Strange as it sounds, the better everyone gets, the more luck ends up deciding the outcome.
Golf is the textbook example. Today’s pros are, by almost every measure, better than the legends of the past. They drive the ball farther and score lower, and since 2011, essentially every major-championship scoring record has been broken or tied. Yet no one has dominated the way Tiger Woods did from 1998 to 2008; the world No. 1 ranking has changed hands dozens of times since that decade-long streak. Everyone got great, so being great stopped being enough to separate from the pack.
The statistics are very striking (does that count as another pun? Sorry, golf terminology makes it too easy). Tour pros now average over 300 yards off the tee, nearly 50 more than in 1980, so raw skill has never been higher. And yet, even the best ball-strikers on tour hit only around 73% of their greens in regulation, and the finest season ever recorded was just over 75%. From 200 yards and out, even the pros find the green less than half the time.
This really gives us amateur players pause. The most skilled players on the planet, on manicured courses, still miss roughly one green in four. Skill gets you close, more reliably in many cases, but never all the way, every time. There is always a gap, and into that gap flow the bounces, the gusts, and the lip-outs.
Investing lives in the same world. Despite better resources and training, fewer than 15% of active equity managers beat their benchmark over ten years. The “greens in regulation” of investing, such as sound process, broad diversification, low costs, and discipline, get you on the dance floor far more often than not. But no process hits every green, and anyone promising otherwise is selling the hero shot.
Which brings us back to Bagger Vance. You don’t “win” investing and stroll off the course. You keep playing it. The goal isn’t to card one perfect round; it’s to keep playing a sound game long enough for skill to compound and for luck to even out.
So, as you enjoy the summer, whether you’re on the course, at the lake, or simply watching the markets melt higher (and as our past Perspectives articles keep saying, you really don’t need to watch that closely), remember that the players who last aren’t the ones chasing the miracle shot on every hole. They’re the ones who hit their greens, take their pars, and stay in the round. We’ll keep doing the same with your portfolios through Q Wealth. Enjoy the sunshine.
1 MyGolfSpy, “How Driving Distance Has Evolved on the PGA Tour” (mygolfspy.com/news-opinion/how-driving-distance-has-evolved-on-the-pga-tour); MyGolfSpy, “PGA Tour Driving Distance Leaders: 2025 vs. 2015” (mygolfspy.com/news-opinion/tour/pga-tour-driving-distance-leaders-2025-versus-2015); Golf Compendium, “Yearly GIR Leaders, PGA Tour” (golfcompendium.com/2018/11/yearly-gir-leaders-pga-tour.html); Golf Digest, “Tiger’s Shot-Shaping Secret From His Most Dominant Year on Tour” (golfdigest.com/story/tiger-s-shot-shaping-secret-from-his-most-dominant-year-on-tour); The Left Rough, “Why Greens in Regulation Matter” (theleftrough.com/why-greens-in-regulation-matter).
2 S&P Dow Jones Indices, SPIVA Canada Scorecard (spglobal.com/spdji/en/spiva/article/spiva-canada); SPIVA U.S. Scorecard (spglobal.com/spdji/en/spiva/article/spiva-us); SPIVA Research Hub (spglobal.com/spdji/en/research-insights/spiva); Wealth Professional, “Active Managers Struggle Again as SPIVA Canada Data Shows Benchmarks Still Winning” (wealthprofessional.ca/investments/etfs/active-managers-struggle-again-as-spiva-canada-data-shows-benchmarks-still-winning/391795).
